landscape is constantly evolving, producing new risks and opportunities that
require a renewed focus on education, planning and developing proactive
measures to respond effectively. What threats should risk leaders prepare for?
The following six trends have the potential to significantly alter the risk
landscape for organizations in the coming decade.
1. Adapting to a
The global climate is changing, and will continue to do so
in ways that affect the planning and day-to-day operations of businesses,
government agencies and other organizations. Any discussion of climate change
should be prefaced by a harsh fact: The frequency and severity of storms,
floods, heatwaves and droughts are on the rise, and experts believe this could
have catastrophic implications for society.
In the United States, 14 weather and climate disaster events
in 2019 caused more than $1 billion in losses, including inland floods, severe
storms, tropical cyclones and wildfires. Between 1980 and 2018, the annual
average was 6.3 billion-dollar events. The annual average for the most recent
five years (2014 to 2018) is an astonishing 12.6 events, according to the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Centers for
Environmental Information. Consider Tropical Storm Imelda, which hit Southeast
Texas in September 2019. Although it might be too soon to tell how climate
change shaped the intensity and speed with which Imelda struck, it will likely
be considered the fifth 500-year flood event in the area in as many years.
In peak hurricane season, businesses need plans centered on
a resilience strategy that looks at every aspect of the storm, including a
system’s ability to maintain a high level of functioning during and after a
disaster, the efficient use of remaining resources at a given point, and the
ability and speed to recover.
Another key consideration is the downstream impact on
business location. With flood probability on a devastating climb, firms will
likely choose to open new plants away from coastal areas. These extreme weather
events will put certain gulf and coastal states at a disadvantage and change
the dynamics of and decisions around where companies invest.
2. Impact of Aging Infrastructure on Supply Chain
Aging infrastructure in the United States is a challenge
many have not fully considered. According to the American Society of Civil
Engineers, which gave U.S. infrastructure a grade of D+ in 2017, the country
will need to spend more than $4.5 trillion by 2025 to fix roads, bridges, dams,
airports and other infrastructure. Crumbling bridges and roads, coupled with
declining ports that struggle to handle evolving vessel design, materials and
mechanics, all result in increased time, effort and process needed to ensure
products reach their destinations safely and on time. A lot of overseas trade
comes through U.S. ports, and while these ports fare better than most other
infrastructure categories, there is still room for improvement, according to
civil engineers. As ships increase in size, ports will need to create deeper
navigation channels. As congestion increases, the freight network,
infrastructure and process that transfers material to its destination must be
addressed and refined to ensure goods are transferred efficiently.
For example, the number of vessels looking to enter
California’s Port of Long Beach has increased at such a rate that port
operators are unable to process them all. Washington’s Port of Seattle can
accept part of the load, but some shipping routes are likely to be diverted to
East Coast ports like those in Newark, New Jersey or Savannah, Georgia. This
would mean huge changes in the dynamics of shipping from Asia, leading to a
more complicated supply chain and, in turn, added time to receive goods.
As supply chains continue to become more complex while
consumer expectations for greater speed and efficiency simultaneously increase,
infrastructure will require additional investment. Road crowding will create
the need for alternate modes of transportation like light rail to more efficiently
move people and goods. In addition, driver shortage problems within commercial
transportation may accelerate the need for rapid deployment of autonomous
vehicle fleets to alleviate the pressure.
3. Cannabis Legalization
In recent years, 11 U.S. states and the District of Columbia
have legalized recreational cannabis. However, it is still designated as a
Schedule I substance under the federal Controlled Substances Act, which
criminalizes its possession, manufacture, distribution and sale. This tension
between federal and state law has led to confusion and challenges in many
industries, including law enforcement, banking and real estate. Across all
industries, employers of individuals who use cannabis are also grappling with
the contradicting laws. Workplace implications and challenges related to
legalized cannabis must be considered and discussed, most notably among
manufacturing and distribution, finance and human resources teams.
This conversation is particularly pertinent to human
resources, specifically with regard to the effect on hiring and employee safety
in the workplace. Studies are being conducted to determine the impact of
cannabis on driving, operating machinery and other occupational duties. In
states where cannabis has been legalized, 30% of accidents involving commercial
drivers saw positive screens for the drug, according to a study conducted by
The Risk Institute at The Ohio State University. Further, the study indicated
that crash severity for bodily injury claims was, on average, 44% more costly
in crashes involving drivers who tested positive for cannabis.
In the financial arena, due to the conflicting federal and
state laws, U.S. banks will not fund businesses that are involved in the
production and/or distribution of cannabis. If they even suspect that an
organization has a cannabis connection, many banks will not be forthcoming with
4. Distracted Driving
With growing public awareness and concern about distracted
driving, there is increasing collaboration among dozens of companies,
organizations and government entities focused on how to predict and curb
distracted driving behaviors. For example, The Risk Institute partnered with
Ohio’s Department of Transportation, Department of Public Safety and Governor
Mike DeWine on a task force to address the issue.
Two-and-a-half million new teen drivers enter U.S. roadways
each year and many of them are underprepared. Every day in the United States,
approximately nine people are killed and more than 1,000 injured in crashes
involving a distracted driver, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration. A report issued by the Ohio Distracted Driving Task Force
revealed that, in Ohio alone, there were more than 14,000 distracted driving
crashes in 2017, resulting in 58 deaths and more than 7,000 injuries.
The Risk Institute has developed a multifaceted methodology
to combat this epidemic that includes:
- Legislative recommendations including changing state law to reclassify distracted driving as a primary offense
- Behavioral interventions to change perception surrounding the social irresponsibility of distracted driving and promote safe driving behaviors
- Technology initiatives such as advanced driver training in schools or apps that monitor driving performance
- Urban planning and development changes that might include transitions to roundabouts at accident-prone intersections
Firms will need to identify organizational risks and vulnerabilities related to cybersecurity and apply administrative actions and comprehensive solutions to ensure adequate protection.
5. Safe Work Environments
When considering how to introduce safer work practices with
a behavior-based emphasis, organizations need to focus on strategies beyond
just risk transfer. This requires paying attention to leading indicators rather
than lagging ones, and understanding that every dollar of loss mitigated is a
dollar to profit and the bottom line.
For this reason, organizations should strive to create a
positive environment in which employees do not just survive but thrive.
Fostering a culture of health, safety and wellness should be a top priority for
human resources personnel, as illnesses and injuries lead to financial burdens
for both employer and employee. Risk mitigation includes engineering the
workplace environment by applying behavior-based safety strategies, job safety
analysis and functional capacity evaluations.
Focusing on a safe work environment requires much more
attention in modern industries. The Risk Institute, for example, is exploring
behavior-based safety processes. Unlike traditional safety management programs
that depended on supervisor-to-associate interaction to drive improvement,
these programs assert that safety should be everyone’s responsibility. The
introduction of behavior-based approaches focuses on empowering all associates
to identify and mitigate unsafe work practices. In addition, augmented reality
and artificial intelligence tools are being used in the workplace to train
personnel and prevent unsafe work exposures.
6. Cyberrisk Management
Cyberrisk is now at the forefront of any conversation
relating to personal and public safety. Practitioners also face an increase in
cyber and third-party risk as firms use more external partners to support key
functions and tasks.
Addressing cybersecurity means taking the concepts inherent
in risk management and applying them to digital assets. Firms will need to
identify organizational risks and vulnerabilities related to cybersecurity and
apply administrative actions and comprehensive solutions to ensure adequate
For example, the NotPetya ransomware attack in 2017 cost
global drug maker Merck $1.3 billion. In all, the attack disabled more than
30,000 laptop and desktop computers at the company’s locations, as well as
7,500 servers. One researcher even claimed she lost 15 years of work.
When we consider the increasing risk of cybercrime on
businesses and governments as well as the recent waves of data fraud and theft,
risk management must shift from a defensive, reactive focus to a proactive focus
that creates value and builds resilience within the organization.
Phil Renaud is executive director of The Risk
Institute at The Ohio State University’s Fisher College of Business. With more
than 25 years of experience, he has managed risk programs at Risk
International, Deutsche Post/DHL (Supply Chain), Kmart Corporation, Limited
Brands, Inc. (L Brands) and SCOA Industries Inc. (Shoe Corporations of